Social Engineering and Beliefs: Odds/Reward Miscalculation

[Kaplok Kaplok]

Here is a scam you probably already heared of:

You recieve a message that you have won 5,000,000. You inquire how to claim it. The friendly sender gives you a few simple steps. BUT, along the process, there was a problem. And to fix the problem, you should somehow send 300 to this person. You complied. But then, the person said there was another problem, but this time you have to send 1,000.

And since you already sent 300 - to you this a hard decision. All clues point to it being a scam.. BUT if you do accept that it is a scam is also accept the person to take your initial 300, without anything in return, So you suppress this thought. Besides what is 1,000 compared to the potential 5,000,000 if it is true, right? From there, it is only a matter of far your FAITH will take you through this deception.

So, why does this work?

It is easy to assume that people who fall for this are stupid. That is a grave mistake to think. Doing so will make you not appreciate the brilliance of the social engineering that goes into the design of this M.O. That also makes you at risk of being a victim of a similar procedure. It is used by ads, companies, marketing, stock market, or even someone or something you never suspect.

This works because it häçks into the blind spots of the human mind. It uses your intuitive senses and emotions to override logical thinking. In the end, you convince yourself that you have used your intelligence. But in reality, it is really appealing to your flawed gămbler's instinct and the flawed math that goes along with it. The flaw is, the bigger the promised reward is, our mind computes this as "higher odds" of getting the reward.

Pascal's Wager​

Have you heard of the Pascal's Wager? If not here is a link which explains it. Feel free to search from other sources. And if you did. In a nutshell, believing in God is an better choice because if you believe that God is real, and it's true,then you go to heaven, and if you believe, and God is not real there is "nothing" to lose.

You would notice the great similarity of the example scam above on how it operated in the victims mind, and how flawed it is. Particularly on the fact that Heaven is given a value of infinite good and hell has a value of infinite bad. And it also minimizes the real consequences that are easily seen. This flawed argument is so old, yet it still works on people to believe in a claims of a God. What makes potent is that, it is so intuitive. So intuitive in fact that people come up with the same explanation without even having heard of "Pascal's Wager".

And, sadly, people do not recognize that they are victims when they fall for it. And in their mind, the choice to believe is easier because the alternative opens up the possibility that they were fooled into believing (as if only stupid people can get fooled), their loved ones were fooled into it, and the difficult acceptance that all their efforts and sacrifices were for nothing. In essence it is better for these people to believe that it was all true than to admit that they got scammed.

It is a truly unsettling fact that we can have doubts "Are We In Control of our Thoughts?" and the answer is, we don't. Not as much as we like, not as much as we should. Smart People can have Bad ideas . Much more if your like me who was not born a genius.

 

[xXmartoXx]

It seems that you are just being a biased here.

You even did not use any story example except that negative example.

How about another possitive example?

Why did you just includes only of a scam story?

Well, if you are really being a rational here, maybe you would consider another version of a story.

Like for example another story is, what if the reward is really legit?

Do you think the reader of your thoughts is a fool?

No,

Sigurado ako matatalino ang ibang mga reader dito, para maintindihan nilang napaka bias ng isip mo.

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

It seems that you are just being a biased here.

I am trying to make I case. Obviously there will be a bias against conventional thinking, which is a lot of times makes as blind. Kaya nga we build this case. Bias does not mean its wrong. Look at my older posts kung naghahanap ka ng case written to be bias to the direction that will agree with you.
Besides I have left the reader to form their conclusion.

How about another possitive example?

Why did you just includes only of a scam story?

We have abundance of this positive example. Narinig na natin sila over and over again. To the point that its cliché.

Like for example another story is, what if the reward is really legit?

Ibig mo ba sabihin kung hindi pala scam yung sa example? You know full well na kung totoong winner ka, winner ka. They will not require you to pay to get your price if it was legit. They will look for you and not like this na parang "carrot on a stick" maghahabol ka ng premyo mo. Do I have to explain to you why there is zero chance of reward in this kind scams?

Do you think the reader of your thoughts is a fool?

That is exactly not what I am pointing. Kaya nga natin hinihimay ang social engineering because it can work as long as you are human. Not because you are a fool. To think that this only works on a stupid or a fool is a disservice to yourself, kasi then you will think that you are immune from this. It preys on your blind spots regardless if youre intelligent.

 

[xXmartoXx]

I am trying to make I case. Obviously there will be a bias against conventional thinking, which is a lot of times makes as blind. Kaya nga we build this case. Bias does not mean its wrong. Look at my older posts kung naghahanap ka ng case written to be bias to the direction that will agree with you.
Besides I have left the reader to form their conclusion.



We have abundance of this positive example. Narinig na natin sila over and over again. To the point that its cliché.



Ibig mo ba sabihin kung hindi pala scam yung sa example? You know full well na kung totoong winner ka, winner ka. They will not require you to pay to get your price if it was legit. They will look for you and not like this na parang "carrot on a stick" maghahabol ka ng premyo mo. Do I have to explain to you why there is zero chance of reward in this kind scams?


That is exactly not what I am pointing. Kaya nga natin hinihimay ang social engineering because it can work as long as you are human. Not because you are a fool. To think that this only works on a stupid or a fool is a disservice to yourself, kasi then you will think that you are immune from this. It preys on your blind spots regardless if youre intelligent.

Sa tingin ko isa lang naman ang ibig ipahiwatig nitong story sample mo.

Ito ay ang pagiging bias ng idea mo tungkol sa reward.

Ayaw mo ng dalawang version ng storya para maging eksakto yung ipinupukol mo sa "faith" na may reward.

Ang gusto mong story version ay yung sasang ayon lang sa idea mo.

Well sorry hindi ganun yun.

Kasi ang "reward" na may kinalaman sa "faith" ay yung "PURPOSE" ng buhay dito sa mundo.

Hindi kita masisisi kung against ka dito.

Kasi nga para sayo walang "reward". At pawang scam lang ang nasa isip mo,

tama ka naman, pero base lang yan sa story version mo. Not in another version of the story about "REWARD" specially in "FAITH".

At dahil dyan sa story version mo, walang "PURPOSE" ang mag exist sa mundong ito.

Kaya maliwanag kung bakit napaka bias ng isip mo at pananaw mo dahil dyan.

Gets na yan ng mga reader dito, kahit ano pa ang sabihin mo, hindi sila b o b o para hindi mahalata ang pagiging bias ng isip mo.

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

Sa tingin ko isa lang naman ang ibig ipahiwatig nitong story sample mo.

Ito ay ang pagiging bias ng idea mo tungkol sa reward.

Ayaw mo ng dalawang version ng storya para maging eksakto yung ipinupukol mo sa "faith" na may reward.

Ang gusto mong story version ay yung sasang ayon lang sa idea mo.

Well sorry hindi ganun yun.

Kasi ang "reward" na may kinalaman sa "faith" ay yung "PURPOSE" ng buhay dito sa mundo.

Hindi kita masisisi kung against ka dito.

Kasi nga para sayo walang "reward". At pawang scam lang ang nasa isip mo,

tama ka naman, pero base lang yan sa story version mo. Not in another version of the story about "REWARD" specially in "FAITH".

At dahil dyan sa story version mo, walang "PURPOSE" ang mag exist sa mundong ito.

Kaya maliwanag kung bakit napaka bias ng isip mo at pananaw mo dahil dyan.

Gets na yan ng mga reader dito, kahit ano pa ang sabihin mo, hindi sila b o b o para hindi mahalata ang pagiging bias ng isip mo.

Again, the topic is to make a case to " why this scam works", despite the fact that human are intelligent beings, and to demonstrate why it is difficult to escape when one is caught.

Given po yung scam sa topic. Halimbawa ang topic is "paano namatay si Rizal" tapos yung reader pinagpipilitan sa author pano kung buhay pala si rizal,, dahil bias kuno ung author.. nakikita mo ba kung guano ka unreasonable ang gusto mo mangyari?

And this was not to argue if or not faith is justified. Reading comprehension lang po.

 

[xXmartoXx]

Again, the topic is to make a case to " why this scam works", despite the fact that human are intelligent beings, and to demonstrate why it is difficult to escape when one is caught.

Given po yung scam sa topic. Halimbawa ang topic is "paano namatay si Rizal" tapos yung reader pinagpipilitan sa author pano kung buhay pala si rizal,, dahil bias kuno ung author.. nakikita mo ba kung guano ka unreasonable ang gusto mo mangyari?

And this was not to argue if or not faith is justified. Reading comprehension lang po.

As I said, yung ibang mga reader dito ay hindi mga bo bo, Alam naman nila ang laman ng pahiwatig mo sa thread mo.

Hindi mo sila maloloko sa palusot mo.

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

As I said, yung ibang mga reader dito ay hindi mga bo bo, Alam naman nila ang laman ng pahiwatig mo sa thread mo.

Hindi mo sila maloloko sa palusot mo.

Well okay. Nagtanong ka pa.. palusot lng pala tingin mo sa sagot ko sayo.

Isn't it ironic na ang topic is to expose ang mga panloloko at kung gaano kaeffective ito i-häçk ang utak ng tao, yet you display exactly that? (Hindi ba PROOF ang tawag sa ganyan kung based sa standard ng faith?)

Isn't it ironic na nagcomment ka dito to accuse me of "just being biased" while you display exactly that? (Besides the fact na you claim somewhere that we should respect each other's beliefs, pero hindi mo kaya ignore ang mga content na hindi agree sayo? Ano tawag ng bible sa ganyan? Starts with H.)

I mean it is unfortunate na yung foundation ng belief mo (if it is the flimsy Pascal's Wager) ay similar sa well known scam from the time you get affected by it to how you would behave afterwards... And these perps will have gaslighting tactics that will go on top of that para lang hindi ka makawala sa beliefs they instilled in your mind. Which is really scary, and a testament on how we humans don't really have a control to our mind as much as we think. BECAUSE IT SIMPLY WORKS. Sadly we will chalk this up to stupidity, and it is the paradoxical reason we keep falling for these scams.

Anyway here is a good read:
Smart People can have Bad ideas

 

[jayendecastro]

It seems that you are just being a biased here.

You even did not use any story example except that negative example.

How about another possitive example?

Why did you just includes only of a scam story?

Well, if you are really being a rational here, maybe you would consider another version of a story.

Like for example another story is, what if the reward is really legit?

Do you think the reader of your thoughts is a fool?

No,

Sigurado ako matatalino ang ibang mga reader dito, para maintindihan nilang napaka bias ng isip mo.

Lets say same scenario.. bigay ng 300.. bigay ng another 1k then voila… may reward nga na 5M..

So ano lang mapapansin natin jan sa 2 ending… having faith will give u a 50/50 chance dun sa reward… 50/50 for me unreliable.. faith is unreliable… wala pang nakakapagpatunay nung reward na un ever…as in wala… “what if” lang….

Yung ganong “what if my reward” ung mindset na usually navivictimize ng “scams”….

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

Lets say same scenario.. bigay ng 300.. bigay ng another 1k then voila… may reward nga na 5M..

So ano lang mapapansin natin jan sa 2 ending… having faith will give u a 50/50 chance dun sa reward… 50/50 for me unreliable.. faith is unreliable… wala pang nakakapagpatunay nung reward na un ever…as in wala… “what if” lang….

Yung ganong “what if my reward” ung mindset na usually navivictimize ng “scams”….

Actually, even to compute the chance as "50/50" is one of the misleading factor, given the available evidence (ex. wala ka naman tinayaan and organizations don't communicate by text when it comes to giving prices worth 5M. Your alarm bells are surely ringing pag andyan ka sa scenario).

Same with Pascals Wager.. the 50/50 odds is a part of the illusion. What makes the seem like 50/50 in pascals wager or scams like on the example - is the absurd amount of prospect to gain (preying on peoples' greed) or the absurd potential amount of loss (preying on peoples' fear).. dahil dito people deem it as a 50/50 chance kasi their judgement is askewed by this emotion to give more undeserved benefit of the doubt.

 

[xXmartoXx]

Kahit magsama pa kayo sa thread na ito, at maglapag ng sample ang result ay ganun pa rin, alam naman nila kung anong motivation meron sa mga katulad nyong bias kung mag isip.

Hindi nyo na yan maitatanggi, dahil maliwanag naman, kahit sa mga sample nyo, ay talagang lumalabas ang pagiging bias ng kaisipan nyo.

Like what I said hindi b o b o ang ibang mga reader dito para hindi mahalata ang pagiging bias ng isip nyo.

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

Kahit magsama pa kayo sa thread na ito, at maglapag ng sample ang result ay ganun pa rin, alam naman nila kung anong motivation meron sa mga katulad nyong bias kung mag isip.

Hindi nyo na yan maitatanggi, dahil maliwanag naman, kahit sa mga sample nyo, ay talagang lumalabas ang pagiging bias ng kaisipan nyo.

Like what I said hindi b o b o ang ibang mga reader dito para hindi mahalata ang pagiging bias ng isip nyo.

Sayo lng nanggagaling na akusasyon na b o b o. Immoral tlga sa standards ko icategorize ang mga tao according sa talino. Ewan ko lng kung ano turo sainyo.

Anyway, oo totoo yan. Pag nalinlang ang mga tao, kahit anong paliwanag mo sakanila, they will reject it. To some extent pa nga yung iba, mas willing sila mamatay sa comfortable lie kesa harapin ang uncomfortable truth (example is heavens gate cult). Human nature nga naman.
Yung mga nasa scam kahit i-warn mo sila, magagalit pa sila sayo lalo kung dead-set na ang kaisipan nila ma-gain ang nasabing reward. Seen this happen so many times. They will be in denial for so long, pagkatapos pag narealize nila, it will be so embarassing kaya hindi narereport ang marami sa mga cases na ito.

Masakit talaga ang katotohanan lalo s punto na hinahatak ka nito papalayo sa mga pinaniniwalaan mong kasinungalingan. Comforting lies are just as addicting as substances.

Kaya nga prevention is better than cure sa cases na ito.

 

[jayendecastro]

Actually, even to compute the chance as "50/50" is one of the misleading factor, given the available evidence (ex. wala ka naman tinayaan and organizations don't communicate by text when it comes to giving prices worth 5M. Your alarm bells are surely ringing pag andyan ka sa scenario).

Same with Pascals Wager.. the 50/50 odds is a part of the illusion. What makes the seem like 50/50 in pascals wager or scams like on the example - is the absurd amount of prospect to gain (preying on peoples' greed) or the absurd potential amount of loss (preying on peoples' fear).. dahil dito people deem it as a 50/50 chance kasi their judgement is askewed by this emotion to give more undeserved benefit of the doubt.

Yep… i just granted ung gusto nung isa na different outcome.. and kahit ung desired outcome ang mangyari still ang odds eh not good enough for me… i can still take a risk like that, pero sa ganong scenario i am willing and accepting of the fact na i could lose a lot… im aware of the failures at successes sa ganong risks na other people can justify

Cant say the same sa afterlife and god…

Kahit magsama pa kayo sa thread na ito, at maglapag ng sample ang result ay ganun pa rin, alam naman nila kung anong motivation meron sa mga katulad nyong bias kung mag isip.

Hindi nyo na yan maitatanggi, dahil maliwanag naman, kahit sa mga sample nyo, ay talagang lumalabas ang pagiging bias ng kaisipan nyo.

Like what I said hindi b o b o ang ibang mga reader dito para hindi mahalata ang pagiging bias ng isip nyo.

Sabi mo ung sample na positive ang result nman… nung binigay na ganun pa din pala… hahaha

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

Yep… i just granted ung gusto nung isa na different outcome.. and kahit ung desired outcome ang mangyari still ang odds eh not good enough for me… i can still take a risk like that, pero sa ganong scenario i am willing and accepting of the fact na i could lose a lot… im aware of the failures at successes sa ganong risks na other people can justify

Cant say the same sa afterlife and god…

Gusto ko lang i clear. Hindi kasi 50/50 ung odds sa mga bagay na yan.

Sakin naman, sobrang allergic ako sa scams na yan. Kwento ko lang. Nangyari yan sa nanay ko, kasalukuyang nasa gitna kami ng matinding financial crisis. Tapos at the same time, ung tatay ko ay inatake ng bipolar/depression nya. Yung nanay ko naniwala, tapos ung tatay ko harshly shouted sa nanay ko "bogus yan!! Wag ka napapaniwala jan!!"

So ako naman, given na depressed siya at nagsasalita ng mga walang kwenta kinampihan ko nanay ko. Nagpresenta pa ako ibili siya ng 500 na globe at 500 na sun prepaid card. Buti nalang nalaman ng isang tito ko kaya pinigilan nya ung nanay ko. Pero what is so scary is that ako sobrang gusto ko i-risk yung budget namin for that week for a potential of 8M. Nagalit ako sa tatay ko, sa tito ko... it was a very embarassing on my part to fall for that when I realized. Buti hindi ako nag express ng galit at nagsalita ng mga bagay na hindi ko na mababawi if I did.

 

[mutagenesisx]

meron naman social engineerin na positive o legal/ethical.

 

[jayendecastro]

Gusto ko lang i clear. Hindi kasi 50/50 ung odds sa mga bagay na yan.

Sakin naman, sobrang allergic ako sa scams na yan. Kwento ko lang. Nangyari yan sa nanay ko, kasalukuyang nasa gitna kami ng matinding financial crisis. Tapos at the same time, ung tatay ko ay inatake ng bipolar/depression nya. Yung nanay ko naniwala, tapos ung tatay ko harshly shouted sa nanay ko "bogus yan!! Wag ka napapaniwala jan!!"

So ako naman, given na depressed siya at nagsasalita ng mga walang kwenta kinampihan ko nanay ko. Nagpresenta pa ako ibili siya ng 500 na globe at 500 na sun prepaid card. Buti nalang nalaman ng isang tito ko kaya pinigilan nya ung nanay ko. Pero what is so scary is that ako sobrang gusto ko i-risk yung budget namin for that week for a potential of 8M. Nagalit ako sa tatay ko, sa tito ko... it was a very embarassing on my part to fall for that when I realized. Buti hindi ako nag express ng galit at nagsalita ng mga bagay na hindi ko na mababawi if I did.

Sa scams na yan ofcors… di sya 50/50… sa afterlife…less odds… some sort of reward sa after life..even less…

Dame ganan scams.. ung isang gay friend ko muntik na sa ganan…met some guy sa online… us army daw nakabased sa china.. nagpapadala ng pics and voice messages… babakasyon daw sa pinas in a few months so need nea someone to receive his stuff.. papadala din daw gadgets and cash na gagastusin nila dito pagdating… tapos nahold sa customs.. need to pay para maclear… nung second time na magsesend na sana ulit ng pera nanghiram skin kaya ko nalaman.. googled the name and picture nung guy and found him sa site ng scammers… wouldve lost 25k ng ganon ganon lang sana..pahiyang pahiya sya non sa colleagues nea kasi niyabang na nga ung american jowa nea..

Every now and then may naririnig ako ganan lalo na sa mga dating apps ung kumare ko na biyuda muntik na din…

Kaya ako pag unknown numbers natawag skin di ko sinasagot.. aksya sa oras..

 

[Kaplok Kaplok]

meron naman social engineerin na positive o legal/ethical.

I guess.. maybe..

But think about, social engineering compels people to do things that they would not have done otherwise. It violates autonomy and free will, regardless if the person is consenting or not.

Wether it is ethical (which is subjective) or legal... it does not remove the unsettling power of social engineering.