- Joined
- Oct 19, 2020
- Posts
- 2,988
- Reaction
- 1,289
- Points
- 1,006
Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because of incomplete data.
The story goes, In World War II, the US Military examined damaged aircraft and concluded that they should add armor in the most-hit areas of the plane. The planes that survived were observed for where they are usually hit.
But what they fail to realize is, the planes that survived, despite having holes on those areas - these planes survived. Therefore, they do not need armor in this area. Instead they need armor on the non-hit areas, because the planes that were hit there, these are the planes that probably fallen.
These bias also affects us in many areas.
Like people who would swear about the legitimacy of horoscopes, gämbling, stock/bitcoin trading, networking are people who coincidentally "proved" it by luck while the ones who can disprove it stay quiet for various reasons.
That is why we have to be careful about the information we absorb. It is not that people are out there to fool us. Maybe they themselves are just mistaken, and never had an opportunity to get a better insight.
Here are some questions that may or may not be an example of survivor bias, but has strong possibilities.
Does belief of God make a person wiser? Maybe those who believe but are unwise are gaslighted to oblivion that's why we only heard of the wise believers..
Are men more likely to be räpists?
Maybe men more are forcibly coerced to sêx by emotional and mental abuse instead of physical, that is why it does not fit the conventional definition of rãpe.
Is Ferdinand Marcos Sr. regime better?
Maybe those who will say otherwise has fled to another country, or is six feet below
What we have left is those with neutral or good experience.
I invite you to also add to this list of question with explanation as to why it might be a survivors bias..
Thank you for reading.
The story goes, In World War II, the US Military examined damaged aircraft and concluded that they should add armor in the most-hit areas of the plane. The planes that survived were observed for where they are usually hit.
But what they fail to realize is, the planes that survived, despite having holes on those areas - these planes survived. Therefore, they do not need armor in this area. Instead they need armor on the non-hit areas, because the planes that were hit there, these are the planes that probably fallen.
These bias also affects us in many areas.
Like people who would swear about the legitimacy of horoscopes, gämbling, stock/bitcoin trading, networking are people who coincidentally "proved" it by luck while the ones who can disprove it stay quiet for various reasons.
That is why we have to be careful about the information we absorb. It is not that people are out there to fool us. Maybe they themselves are just mistaken, and never had an opportunity to get a better insight.
Here are some questions that may or may not be an example of survivor bias, but has strong possibilities.
Does belief of God make a person wiser? Maybe those who believe but are unwise are gaslighted to oblivion that's why we only heard of the wise believers..
Are men more likely to be räpists?
Maybe men more are forcibly coerced to sêx by emotional and mental abuse instead of physical, that is why it does not fit the conventional definition of rãpe.
Is Ferdinand Marcos Sr. regime better?
Maybe those who will say otherwise has fled to another country, or is six feet below
What we have left is those with neutral or good experience.
I invite you to also add to this list of question with explanation as to why it might be a survivors bias..
Thank you for reading.