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Closed Palace tells UP, UST experts to stop publicizing quarantine status recommendations

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wag nyo kami sapawan, nakikitang wala talaga kaming alam - Harry Roque
⬆ joke yan

MANILA, Philippines — Malacañang on Tuesday said a group of experts from universities should refrain from publicizing their recommendations on quarantine classifications in the country to avoid preempting government from making decisions.

The OCTA Research team had recently said the towns of Bauan in Batangas, Calbayog in Western Samar, and General Trias in Cavite should be reverted to a stricter quarantine status after an increase in its daily attack rate were recorded in the said areas.

Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said at a briefing that while they appreciate the group's efforts in monitoring virus cases, it would be better for them to course their observations privately to the IATF.

"I have requested for them to desist from making recommendations on classifications as it is really the job of experts," he said in mixed Filipino and English. "I understand they have one or two epidemiologists but it's still not the same number of experts working with the IATF."

Roque said the provincial governments along with the regional IATF could make the said decision on the municipalities, as he responded to questions on the group's call.


But, he added that even the crisis panel dealing with the pandemic does not release to the public their recommendations before submitting to President Rodrigo Duterte, who Roque said makes the final call.

"They can probably endorse their recommendations privately to the IATF so that the panel is not preempted," he said.

The UP OCTA Research team began providing forecasts back in April, when the coutnry was still in hard lockdowns from the COVID-19. Experts from the University of Santo Tomas later on joined in the group.

They have also warned that easing quarantine measures in Metro Manila could see the country's total cases ballooning, which now stands at 342,816 as of October 13, with 6,332 deaths.

In June, Roque touted victory with his "Congratulations, Philippines" remarks over beating OCTA's projections that the Philippines will see 40,000 infections by end of the said month. It was, however, just short of about a few thousands from the 36,438 tally by end-June.

The government has long faced criticism for how it has put retired military officials instead of health experts in charge of its response to a pandemic in the country that has emerged to have the highest number of infections in Southeast Asia and among the world's Top 20 nations with highest cases.
 
Uulitin ko lang lahat sinabi ko.

Para sakim dapat talaga simula palang di na sa media nilalabas, kundi sa mga talagang nagreresearch o totoong expert.

Iwas narin misinformation lalo na di sigurado mga recommendation nila.

Muka naman naman susundin nila gobyerno kaya ok na ko dun.
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 419201, m: 1011376'][/XX] ilang ulit ko na rin tinatanong di naman sinasagot, sinusunod nga ba yung lahat ng mga recommendations, dahil hindi naman diba?

wdym na misinformation? lahat naman ng nakalagay sa mga pinalalabas nila sinasabi nila na recommendation lang yan at alam naman ng lahat na yung gobyerno ang may desisyon diba. at wala yan sa pinagsasabi ni roque sayo lang yan ah. kelan pa tayo na misinform sa mga sinabi nila? yung di umabot sa 40k yung kaso last time? haha

tsaka maganda naman track record ng mga researcher sa labas ng IATF. halos tama naman sa lahat ng sinasabi nila pero di naman sinusunod yung iba.

kung magrereply ka pala ulit paps, next week na lng ako mag reply rin hahaha, katamad mag discuss ng mga ganito pag di naman ako masyadong apektado pag magkakamali yung gov haha.
 
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kung expert yan dali lang naman mapilit gobyerno, kung maganda recommendation.
Ayaw ko naman magfocus sa mga researchers, salamat nalang sa kanila, pero sana sila naman sumunod, para iwas misinformation, di naman sila laging tama at di lang sila researchers.
wdym na misinformation? lahat naman ng nakalagay sa mga pinalalabas nila sinasabi nila na recommendation lang yan at alam naman ng lahat na yung gobyerno ang may desisyon diba. at wala yan sa pinagsasabi ni roque sayo lang yan ah. kelan pa tayo na misinform sa mga sinabi nila? yung di umabot sa 40k yung kaso last time? haha
As if naman na macontrol kung ano naiisip ng tao sa mga information na binibigay nila.

kung gusto po talaga nilang makatulong doon sa rekomendasyon na iyon, i-address po nila sa tamang recipient – ang Presidente or ang mga lokal na pamahalaan. 5x
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 420275, m: 1011376'][/XX] it's as if di mo binasa lahat. same pa rin sinasabi mo.

"As if naman na macontrol kung ano naiisip ng tao sa mga information na binibigay nila." like wtf
ayaw mo mag focus sa researchers na maganda yung track record. at tinatawag mo pa rin na misinformation. prediction yan nila at di pa sila nagkakamali. prediction yan di misinformation. wala naman masyadong pinagkaiba ang 40,000 cases sa 36,438 cases.
you're countering my arguments with paniniwala instead of statements na binigay nila roque, like wth dude napaka boring.
saan ba sila nagkakamali ha?
kUnG gUsTO pO tALaGa NilANg MaKatUlOng DoOn sA rEkOmEnDasYoN nA iYoN, i-aDDrEsS pO nILA sA tAmaNG rEcIpiEnT – aNG PReSidEnTe oR aNg mGA lOkAl nA paMaHAlaAn
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 420906, m: 1011376'][/XX] yea, boring mo paps, naghihinayang na ko sa pakikipag argumento sayo.
low quality mga response mo, di mo na pinaglalaban yung mga sinabi ng IATF at ni roque, kundi yung sayo na lang.
nagsisinungaling ka pa.
at iba talaga yung predicted sa exact amount, simple lang naman intindihin yun. may konting deperensya prediction yan eh.

36,438 by end of june vs 40,000, anong sinasabi mong end of august lol. 220,000 yung prediction sa end of august 224,264 yung final tally.
sobrang layo diba, duhhhhh.

kung ganyan talaga yung paningin mo sa mga binibigay nila na prediction walang point yung usapan.
 
Yung 40k prediction nila pang ncr lang.

nasa same paragraph rin yung pang end of august, iba yung 220,000 na prediction kasi pang buong pilipinas yun.

Sa Official Data ka nila, wag puro news article.

O diba nalito ka? kaya sundin nalang muna nila yan para iwas misinformation.

7x
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 421067, m: 1011376'][/XX] manloloko ka paps
...
4. Using the current value of Ro, based on the current number of cases in the Philippines (including uncategorized cases) and assuming the trends continue, this projects to a total of 40,000 Covid-19 cases by June 30, with 1,850 deaths.

5. The reproduction number Ro in the National Capital Region (NCR) is estimated between 0.96 and 1.19. Using the lower value of Ro, this projects to 16,500 Covid-19 cases and 1,070 deaths in NCR by June 30. Taking into account the uncategorized cases, this projects to 20,500 Covid-19 cases and 1,200 deaths in NCR by June 30.
...
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[XX='Fried Rice, c: 421200, m: 671488'][/XX]
Tamang hinala ka paps,

4. A continuation of General Community Quarantine (GCQ) in NCR will lead to 40,000 cases by end of July and more than 80,000 cases with 2,800 total deaths by end of August. Moving NCR to a stricter quarantine such as Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) will reduce the reproduction number Rt to about 1.1 by end of July and close to 1 by end of August, resulting in about 35,000 cases by end of July and 56,000 cases with 1,900 deaths in NCR by end of August. On the other hand, lifting the quarantine will very likely increase the community transmissions and increase further the reproduction number, leading to 45,000 cases by end of July and more than 120,000 cases by end of August with 4,200 deaths in NCR.
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Lito ka na ba? kaya yan sabi ko sayo may rason gobyerno bakit dapat wag ipublic.
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 421515, m: 1011376'][/XX]
meron pala yan, pero umiba yung usapan eh
36,438 by end of june vs 40,000 sa buong pilipinas yung topic, naging end of july 40,000 sa ncr.
ikaw yung unang nalito paps o baka sinadya mong ibahin yung usapan.
"Yung 40k prediction nila pang ncr lang."
diyan mo na iniba

"Assuming that the reproduction number, Rt remains and there is no significant change in the interventions and strategies by the government, the current number of cases in the NCR will lead to 45,000 cases by the end of July and more than 80,000 cases with 2,800 deaths by the end of August."
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at sinunod naman nila ito 👆 kaya di umabot sa 45k
almost MECQ na sana un kung di sila nag promise kaya stay sa GCQ.
naging strict sila dahil sa findings, umiba lang ung intervention nila.

“Nag-apela po ang ating Chief Implementer [Carlito Galvez] at ang ating Secretary of the Interior and Local Government [Eduardo Año] dahil nangako ang ating mayors na paiigtingin ang kanilang lockdown; palalakasin ang testing, tracing, at treatment; at patutuparin ng mas malawakan ang restrictions sa GCQ (Secretaries Galvez and Año appealed the recommendation because the Metro Manila mayors promised to intensify their lockdown, testing, tracing, treatment, and the enforcement of quarantine restrictions),” he said Wednesday evening.
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Magkaiba lang tinutukoy natin pero, malayo yung projections ng end of august.
sabi mo laging tama, pano naging laging tama yun.
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 422236, m: 1011376'][/XX] yung 80,000 diba? common sense, symepre malayo yan dahil di nangyari yung 45,000 na kaso duhhh, sinunod kasi yung recommendation na ibahin yung intervention at strategy.

baguhin ko explaination ko ha.
di kasi yan pera, walang exact number na 8182747 kundi estimate, kung saan malapit na 8200000. parang sa negosyo ba.
estimate yung 40,000 sa buong pinas, pero yung exact 36,438.
 
sabi ko nga sa numero may sobrang layo. pano naging laging tama yun.
Obvious naman na kapag mas strict o less strict, bababa o tataas.

kung laging tama sila bakit nga ba natin sila pigilan :)
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 423034, m: 1011376'][/XX] di mo siguro naintindihan yung inexplain nila na process paps eh
NCR will lead to 45,000 cases by the end of July and more than 80,000 cases with 2,800 deaths by the end of August."
yan ha, kung walang intervention na mangyayari magiging 45,000 hanggang magiging 80,000, pero may nangyaring pagbabago, di nangyari ang 45,000 obviously di mangyayari ang 80,000.

tsaka paps, di to about kung sa tama or mali sila , sa pagkabasa ko last time, yung issues sa local gov yung inaaddress ni roque, yung sa part na about sa mga "lagot si mayor".
 
Ayokong maliitin yung efforts ng gobyerno natin dahil di biro itong pagsugpo sa pandemya. Kinikilala din naman nila yung OCTA-Research Reports pero they treat this party as a threat ayon sa kanilang mga bibig rather than a useful source for a common cause. Wala namang pagkakaiba sa statistics, charts, curves ng dalawa kundi sa forecasts. Sa dami ng pagkukulang at hindi pantay-pantay na pagbabalita ng gobyerno kontra sa ORR statements noong nakaraan ay bumaba yung kanilang credibility. ORR statements/forecasts were more reliable in the past.
Parang gusto nilang solohin yung "limelight" ngayong papaganda na yung sitwasyon natin as seen during the last quarter of August till today - total "active" cases are slowly declining regardless of the thousands of daily infection while mortality rate remains constant <2%. Yan yung sitwasyon natin ngayon sa pandemic curve if you review it.
 
Sabi mo sinunod nila recommendation pero lalo lumaki 120k+.

Sinabi rin ni roque na walang sariling data gathering up.

Kung laging tama nga sila, bakit nila pipigilan.
 
[XX='Planet Galileo, c: 424681, m: 1011376'][/XX] anong 120k naman yan? akala ko ba ang 80k???????
akala ko ba yung sa ncr, ano naman to?
 
ano ka ba, iniiba mo naman yung usapan eh.
yung unang usapan 40k sa end of june, tapos naging 45k sa end of july, tapos yung 80k naman, eto naman 120k??????
political nga yung reason sa nireply mo diba, kung binasa mo man yun.
 
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