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First of 3 parts
AS I said earlier this week, it's that time of year again when everyone with a few connected synapses suddenly decides he or she is a prophet and offers a list of "(some number) of predictions for (insert year here)" for public consumption. Without further ado, here's my contribution, arranged in the order I think is most-to-least likely to happen:
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1. Get ready for more extreme weather events. While the advocates of environmental destruction will certainly continue to argue that climate change is not happening because it disagrees with their anti-progress political views, the year 2021 is when it became clear that the tipping point has been reached. It is obvious now that Earth's climate is broken; irretrievably, I believe, though some continue to hope that it can be fixed.
Warming atmospheric and sea temperatures wreak havoc on weather patterns, which in turn leads to unpredictable weather events. Typhoon "Odette," for example, was not really that far out of the "norm" as far as the season or its path was concerned, but the fact that it strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 5 typhoon in about a day was. The altered climate brings the wrong things — whether dry weather, wet weather, heat or cold — to the "wrong" places at the "wrong" times, often with destructive results that defy prediction and warning to affected populations. We have entered an era in which weather events will routinely be "unprecedented" and "record-breaking"; 2022 will make 2021's freakish weather look mild by comparison, and the world is collectively a long way from figuring out how or when.
2. Marcos wins the May 2022 presidential election. This early in the campaign, it has already become clear that the presidency is a two-horse race between Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo and the feckless son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Although it is not the outcome I would choose if it were up to me, I feel fairly confident in placing my bet on Marcos.
This is unfortunate and will result in significant setbacks to the quality of Philippine governance and its social and economic development, but all things considered, it seems almost inevitable. Filipinos have demonstrated time and again that if given a choice, they will choose a candidate based on mythology rather than evident fitness for office or policy proposals and that a lack of personal integrity is, if anything, somewhat appealing. Marcos also has the advantage of being the presumptive successor to outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte — who is widely popular, largely for the negative reasons already stated — whereas his opponent Robredo, despite having a substantial, well thought-out platform and a solid performance record, is seen as cog in the widely disliked, traditional political machine.
Another reason a Marcos win is virtually guaranteed is one that is constantly overlooked by supporters of any candidate: campaigns do not change minds. It has been demonstrated time and again, in elections all over the world, that once voters develop a clear preference they almost never change it. Thus, candidates are left to battle over whatever proportion of the electorate falls into the "undecided" category, and the only time an election is actually interesting is when that category is large enough to move the outcome in favor of the trailing candidate. Unfortunately, even this early, that does not appear to be the case; most polls so far indicate the percentage of undecided voters is in the single or very low double-digits, well short of what Robredo would need to swing the result her way.
This is the one prediction of all 10 that I most hope I am wrong about. Unfortunately, the rational side of my mind has hog-tied the sentimental side and duct-taped its mouth shut on this one, and therefore, I am looking ahead to the May election with discouraged resignation rather than anticipation.
3. The US midterm elections will be chaotic, and push the country toward even greater unrest. It is ordinarily difficult to generalize Americans as the country is so large and diverse, but over the past few years it has become clear that the American population has become divided into two distinct groups: One that is lazy, selfish, has no self-worth and is threatened by any appearance of reasonable human qualities such as intelligence, self-improvement, initiative, or tolerance; and everyone else.
Unfortunately, it turns out the former group is much larger than anyone in the latter realized, except for the Republican Party leadership. They grasped relatively quickly that using the archetype of that class, the gross caricature of a human being that is Donald Trump, as a front man and role model was likely the quickest way to power, in the style explained by Josef Goebbels: "Just because we acquired power through democratic means didn't mean we intended to preserve them."
Next November, the US will hold midterm elections, which will involve all the seats in the House of Representatives, half the seats in the Senate, and numerous state and local offices. The Democrats will, at least on paper, probably maintain their majority in Congress; however, final results will be difficult if not impossible to obtain. Any election race that goes against the Republicans will be challenged, manipulated through legal means or otherwise, and violently protested, and as a consequence, the US could very well be left without a functioning national government. What happens then is anyone's guess, but it should be interesting; the collapse of empires always is.
(To be continued on Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022)
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Twitter: @benkritz
FROM: MANILATIMES.NET
AS I said earlier this week, it's that time of year again when everyone with a few connected synapses suddenly decides he or she is a prophet and offers a list of "(some number) of predictions for (insert year here)" for public consumption. Without further ado, here's my contribution, arranged in the order I think is most-to-least likely to happen:
You do not have permission to view the full content of this post. Log in or register now.
1. Get ready for more extreme weather events. While the advocates of environmental destruction will certainly continue to argue that climate change is not happening because it disagrees with their anti-progress political views, the year 2021 is when it became clear that the tipping point has been reached. It is obvious now that Earth's climate is broken; irretrievably, I believe, though some continue to hope that it can be fixed.
Warming atmospheric and sea temperatures wreak havoc on weather patterns, which in turn leads to unpredictable weather events. Typhoon "Odette," for example, was not really that far out of the "norm" as far as the season or its path was concerned, but the fact that it strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 5 typhoon in about a day was. The altered climate brings the wrong things — whether dry weather, wet weather, heat or cold — to the "wrong" places at the "wrong" times, often with destructive results that defy prediction and warning to affected populations. We have entered an era in which weather events will routinely be "unprecedented" and "record-breaking"; 2022 will make 2021's freakish weather look mild by comparison, and the world is collectively a long way from figuring out how or when.
2. Marcos wins the May 2022 presidential election. This early in the campaign, it has already become clear that the presidency is a two-horse race between Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo and the feckless son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Although it is not the outcome I would choose if it were up to me, I feel fairly confident in placing my bet on Marcos.
This is unfortunate and will result in significant setbacks to the quality of Philippine governance and its social and economic development, but all things considered, it seems almost inevitable. Filipinos have demonstrated time and again that if given a choice, they will choose a candidate based on mythology rather than evident fitness for office or policy proposals and that a lack of personal integrity is, if anything, somewhat appealing. Marcos also has the advantage of being the presumptive successor to outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte — who is widely popular, largely for the negative reasons already stated — whereas his opponent Robredo, despite having a substantial, well thought-out platform and a solid performance record, is seen as cog in the widely disliked, traditional political machine.
Another reason a Marcos win is virtually guaranteed is one that is constantly overlooked by supporters of any candidate: campaigns do not change minds. It has been demonstrated time and again, in elections all over the world, that once voters develop a clear preference they almost never change it. Thus, candidates are left to battle over whatever proportion of the electorate falls into the "undecided" category, and the only time an election is actually interesting is when that category is large enough to move the outcome in favor of the trailing candidate. Unfortunately, even this early, that does not appear to be the case; most polls so far indicate the percentage of undecided voters is in the single or very low double-digits, well short of what Robredo would need to swing the result her way.
This is the one prediction of all 10 that I most hope I am wrong about. Unfortunately, the rational side of my mind has hog-tied the sentimental side and duct-taped its mouth shut on this one, and therefore, I am looking ahead to the May election with discouraged resignation rather than anticipation.
3. The US midterm elections will be chaotic, and push the country toward even greater unrest. It is ordinarily difficult to generalize Americans as the country is so large and diverse, but over the past few years it has become clear that the American population has become divided into two distinct groups: One that is lazy, selfish, has no self-worth and is threatened by any appearance of reasonable human qualities such as intelligence, self-improvement, initiative, or tolerance; and everyone else.
Unfortunately, it turns out the former group is much larger than anyone in the latter realized, except for the Republican Party leadership. They grasped relatively quickly that using the archetype of that class, the gross caricature of a human being that is Donald Trump, as a front man and role model was likely the quickest way to power, in the style explained by Josef Goebbels: "Just because we acquired power through democratic means didn't mean we intended to preserve them."
Next November, the US will hold midterm elections, which will involve all the seats in the House of Representatives, half the seats in the Senate, and numerous state and local offices. The Democrats will, at least on paper, probably maintain their majority in Congress; however, final results will be difficult if not impossible to obtain. Any election race that goes against the Republicans will be challenged, manipulated through legal means or otherwise, and violently protested, and as a consequence, the US could very well be left without a functioning national government. What happens then is anyone's guess, but it should be interesting; the collapse of empires always is.
(To be continued on Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022)
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Twitter: @benkritz
FROM: MANILATIMES.NET
Bong Bong is d man.