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upset
An upset occurs in a competition, frequently in electoral politics or sports, when the party popularly expected to win (the "favorite"), is defeated by (or in the case of sports, ties with) an underdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying the conventional wisdom. If it happens in a cup competition, it is sometimes referred to as a "cupset" (a portmanteau, combining the words "cup" and "upset"). It is often used in reference to beating the betting odds in sports, or beating the opinion polls in electoral politics.