Next pandemic could be more lethal than COVID, vaccine creator says

© Provided by Interaksyon

LONDON — Future pandemics could be even more lethal than COVID–19 so the lessons learned from the outbreak must not be squandered and the world should ensure it is prepared for the next viral onslaught, one of the creators of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine said.

The novel coronavirus has killed 5.26 million people across the world, according to Johns Hopkins University, wiped out trillions of dollars in economic output and turned life upside down for billions of people.

“The truth is, the next one could be worse. It could be more contagious, or more lethal, or both,” Sarah Gilbert said in the Richard Dimbleby Lecture, the BBC reported. “This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihoods.”

Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said the world should make sure it is better prepared for the next virus.

“The advances we have made, and the knowledge we have gained, must not be lost,” she said.

Efforts to end the COVID–19 pandemic have been uneven and fragmented, marked by limited access to vaccines in low-income countries while the “healthy and wealthy” in rich countries get boosters, health experts say.

A panel of health experts set up by the World Health Organization to review the handling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has called for permanent funding and for greater ability to investigate pandemics through a new treaty.

One proposal was for new financing of at least $10 billion a year for pandemic preparedness.

The COVID–19 outbreak was first detected in China in late 2019. Vaccines were developed against the virus in record time.

Gilbert said the Omicron variant’s spike protein contained mutations known to increase the transmissibility of the virus.

“There are additional changes that may mean antibodies induced by the vaccines, or by infection with other variants, may be less effective at preventing infection with Omicron,” Gilbert said.

“Until we know more, we should be cautious, and take steps to slow down the spread of this new variant.” —Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge and Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Kate Holton

FROM: INTERAKSYON.COM

 

[alist1986]

Walang fixed assumptions pagdating sa susunod na pandemic from novel diseases to its variants. Sa precautions lang at improvements sa preparedness ang pagtutuunan ng pansin. Sa mga bagong VOC tulad ng Omicron variant, limitado pa ang datos para maliwangan tayo sa epekto nito at kung hanggang saan yung present vaccines ay epektibo. Natural na mababa na lalo pa sa mga naunang nabakunahang mga bansa. Continuous study yan per country, per region, age distribution, histology ng mutations/variants, timeline, symptoms, viral load, hanggang sa comparisons nito sa ibang variants sa infected up to recovery, atbp.

Ang malinaw, di preparado ang mundo sa simula pa kaya tumagal tayo ng ganito. Natuto lang tayong mag-ingat nong kumalat na yung sakit kahit noon pa ay meron na tayong pamantayan para umiwas - pagdating sa lunas ay wala dahil mabilis magbago yung sakit at matagal gumawa ng vaccines. Kawawa yung mahihirap na bansa na nangangailangan ng tulong at karamihan ay malaki ang kakulangan sa impormasyon at kakayahang humarap sa ganitong klaseng trahedya. Natural, uunahin ng pharmas yung mayayamang mga bansa sa kanilang pangangailangan para sa gamot, gamit, pati bakuna dahil sila ang nagpondo at patuloy na nangangasiwa sa development nito - like the US Operation Warp Speed, atbp. Ang resulta "vaccine apartheid" or "global inequities in Covid-19 vaccine" kaya ginawa yang COVAX para bumilis yung pag-manage ng distribution sa low-income countries, though alam natin na yung Bill Gates Foundation ang may malaking impluwensiya dito - hindi WHO o kahit UN. Umabot na tayo sa stage na yung charities/donations ay mag-transition na sa investments and commercialization. Inevitable dahil may hangganan din yung pagbibigay ng libre habang patuloy ang gastos sa mabilisang development ng new vaccines and possible cure. Yung pondo ng mga COVID Foundations ang sumusuporta sa mga pharmas na gumawa ng vaccines.

Nagsisimula pa lang kumalat yang Omicron sa SEA at WPS kaya matatagalan pa bago yan maging malaking issue sa atin, though may ilan na rin tayong cases from travelers (only). Kapag pumutok na yung local transmission nyan sa Indonesia at Malaysia at mga kapitbahay natin, madadale na rin tayo kalaunan. Monitor mo lang dito, may hint ka na.
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Chain-reaction kasi yan dahil kalat na sa mundo. Pero meron na tayong pangkasalukuyang hakbang na labanan siya - kahit ano pa yang variant na dumating. Hindi man perfect, nakakatulong pa rin yon. Kaya ibayong pasensya bgo dumating yung next-gen vaccines o possible antivirals.

Kaya depende rin kung yung present safety protocols para ma-limit yung pagdating/pagdami rito ay magiging effective pati na rin yung accuracy ng ating tracker data. Hindi tayo apektado pa dahil yung circulating variants sa atin ay natulungan din ng (fresh pa na) pagbabakuna sa maraming vulnerable na tao at hotspots sa Pilipinas. Malaking pursiyento ng target communities at age group sa virus-stricken areas na covered ng vaccines plus yung other protocols. Yung epekto nyan sa pangkalahatan ang nagpapababa pa rin hanggang ngayon. Ang ibig pong sabihin, mataas yung antas ng immunity natin kahit ~40% pa lang ang fully vaccinated in total. Against Delta variant, ok pa tayo. Pero yung duration niyan ay di natin alam kung hanggang saan natin ma-maintain. Malalaman lang natin kung magsimulang dumami na yung cases ng Omicron transmission (o kaya ay hindi, which is better). We reap what we sow na lang!

Ang klaro lang as of this date sa maraming preliminary studies, mas contagious ang Omicron pero less deadly kaysa Delta. At kahit bakunado ay maaring mahawahan, though most will recover. (Kung infected ka na, di mo na kailangan ng vaccines dahil nasa loob na ng katawan mo yung mag-trigger sa pagggawa ng antibodies - that's the logic. Infected ka nga lang while yung sa vaccines ay "fake virus" ang ginamit. Hindi yan tulad ng antiviral. Kaya isolate and recovery for safety reasons.) Ang problema pa, di malinaw ito sa isip ng tao at di ko nakikita na ipinaliwanag/binanggit ng "specific" kahit pa sa DOH mainsite natin, which is odd.

Kita rin naman sa stats sa South Africa kung ano ang effects nitong Omicron after a few weeks of transmission, but it's just preliminary. At within 24 hrs of infection, pwede kang manghawa di tulad ng Delta. Yan yung concern, pero di tayo tulad noong nakaraan na wala pang bakuna at walang matinong patakaran.

Kaya nga nagsimula na rin yung Pfizer maging Moderna atbp. na gumawa ng omicron-specific boosters (+ for other potential mutations) na maaring ready na within ~60 - 90 days. Clinical trials muna bago ma-approve kung sakali next year. (Hindi gumawa ng delta-specific boosters noon dahil sapat na yung 1st-gen vaccine booster formulation na labanan siya.)

Common sense na siguro kung bakit nila ginawa ito at yung maaaring uunahin mga lugar para dito kung sakaling ilabas. (Sa approval ng booster shots wala pang set na standards, pero ilang buwan lang+few hundred patients yung clinical trials kaysa usual vaccines bago ma-approve via EUA ng FDA at Health Dep't.) Kaya ang best option na lang sa atin is to maximize present vaccination+boosters+extra protective measures to enhance waning immunity, avoid severe conditions and death. Hanggang dyan lang talaga. Wala namang iba kundi magtago ka he he.

Kaya samantalahin natin yung pagkakataon ngayon at umasa na di natin sapitin yung naranasan ng ibang mga bansa. Ang best defense natin, isolated tayo via South China Sea and Philippine Sea. Kung ma-control natin ang entry points ng next VOC, we can manage. Kung makapasok, ma-isolate agad habang kaunti. Sa WPS region, nasa post-peak period tayo ng pandemya pero volatile yung estado natin sa next wave habang marami pa ring mga bansa ang patuloy sa pandemic phase.

Understanding and being updated with actual events is the key for us citizens to have a clear view of what is happening and to act accordingly. Bahala na yung gobyerno sa iba...Try to learn to live with the virus like its a common disease.